tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-55802067229398281732024-02-19T07:06:02.030-08:00Sharon G Harrison's Unintended Consequences BlogSharon G Harrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02041335486606441461noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5580206722939828173.post-77503244951847577052020-07-15T09:39:00.000-07:002020-07-15T09:39:26.854-07:00<br />
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<img alt="Photo of Letian Zhang" border="0" src="https://d3vgmmrg377kge.cloudfront.net/photos/facstaff/Ent1047757.jpg" /></div>
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For this post, I interviewed <a href="https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/profile.aspx?facId=1047757">Letian Zhang</a>. Professor Zhang
is an Assistant Professor of Business Administration in the Organizational
Behavior Unit at Harvard Business School. He is an Economic Sociologist. His
research focuses on inequalities in the labor market, with particular attention
to those that affect minorities and women. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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I asked him about his paper, “<a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3460840">Shaking Things Up: Unintended Consequences of Firm Acquisitions on Inequality and Diversity</a>.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In this paper, Professor Zhang is interested
in how mergers and acquisitions (M&A) affect women and minorities in their
workplaces. He interviewed executives who experienced M&A’s first-hand. He
also collected data, similar to the US census, but for companies that employ at
least 100 people, from 1971-2015. </div>
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When a company is acquired, lay-offs are inevitable. Previous
work, like <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Papers.cfm?abstract_id=2793887">this paper</a>, for example, has shown that, in general, the
college-educated, highly skilled workers are at less risk of losing their jobs.
It is the lower skilled, or back-office workers who are most often laid off. Professor
Zhang measures diversity in the workplace with the proportion of minority
managers or of female managers. He found that, compared to firms that did not
experience an M&A, 5 years after an M&A, the proportion of minority managers
<b>increased</b> by anywhere from about 2 to 5 percent, depending on the minority, and
the proportion of female managers <b>increased</b> by about 2 percent. And, interestingly,
the effect was stronger when the acquiring firm was more diverse. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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So, this is a nice example of a positive unintended
consequence. And Professor Zhang has a very intuitive interpretation of it.
While firms engage in M&A’s for financially motivated reasons, Professor
Zhang did find in his interviews that executives do value, and want to
increase, diversity. However, doing so in the absence of a large restructuring
like an M&A is far too costly. So, they wait until an M&A, and take
advantage of the opportunity to diversify. So, in this sense the diversity that
results from M&A’s may not be fully unintended, but more like an unexpected
benefit of M&A’s.</div>
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Professor Zhang was careful in his analysis, checking for
other possible explanations for his result. For example, maybe the white men in
managerial positions were voluntarily leaving after M&A’s. If so, this
should happen more during good economic times. But this was not the case in his
data. Or, maybe companies are looking to cut costs by eliminating the higher
paid white men. If so, this should be happening in the companies in the most
dire financial situations. This was also not the case in his data. </div>
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Professor Zhang’s results show that M&A’s provide an
opportunity for improved racial and gender equality. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But, keep in mind that they do generally
result in layoffs of workers in lower level positions, potentially increasing <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">socioeconomic inequality.</b> No doubt it’s
a complex issue --<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>we can learn from the
different ways that different economists, and sociologists, approach and
evaluate it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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I asked Professor Zhang about his related current work. He
has work in progress in which he is interested in the effect that the political
affiliation of the CEO has on the level of racial inequality within a firm, and
how this effect varies. So far he is finding that more liberal CEO’s <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>tend to value diversity more, and that CEO’s
have more influence on the level of racial inequality when the business is
changing more strategically.</div>
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Let’s talk! I would love to know what you think about this
example of unintended consequences. Please submit comments and questions. </div>
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<![endif]-->Sharon G Harrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02041335486606441461noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5580206722939828173.post-43623947861463323402020-07-06T10:37:00.000-07:002020-07-06T10:37:18.240-07:00
<br />
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<img alt="Y. Claire Wang, MD, ScD" src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/production.media.nyam.org/filer_public_thumbnails/filer_public/b5/99/b599040c-3d30-4fef-8a1c-aed438ca7752/clairewang.jpg__310x435_q85_crop_subsampling-2_upscale.jpg" /></div>
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For this post, I interviewed <a href="https://www.nyam.org/about/leadership-staff/claire-wang/">Claire Wang</a>. Dr. Wang is the
Vice President of Research, Evaluation & Policy at the New York Academy of
Medicine. She is a physician, and she holds a doctoral degree in Health Policy
and Decision Sciences. Her research specialties include the field of health
technology assessment, which examines the economic costs and benefits of new
technologies in the health sector; chronic disease prevention; and obesity. </div>
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We talked about her paper, “<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/oby.22813">COVID-19-Related School Closings and Risk of Weight Gain Among Children</a>.” <span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"></span>This paper is
co-authored with <a href="https://www.publichealth.columbia.edu/people/our-faculty/agr3">Andrew Rundle</a>, <a href="https://ssw.smith.edu/academics/faculty_detail/yoosun-park">Yoosun Park</a>, <a href="https://www.publichealth.columbia.edu/people/our-faculty/jh2678">Julie Herbstman</a>, and <a href="https://www.jefferson.edu/academics/colleges-schools-institutes/population-health/administration-faculty-staff/faculty/whiteman-kinsey.html">Eliza Kinsey</a>.
In this paper, Dr. Wang and her collaborators discuss a potential important
unintended consequence of the school closures in the US during the Covid-19
pandemic. It’s too soon to have data on this, but previous work has addressed
the factors at play here. </div>
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First, because of the pandemic, many families are suffering financially
and are grocery shopping less often, to avoid exposure to the virus. They are
therefore buying more “shelf-stable” foods like pasta and ready-to-eat meals,
which have lower nutritional value than foods like fresh fruits and vegetables,
which are more expensive and don’t last as long. Second, results of <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/josh.12274"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">previous studies</span></a> have shown that
childhood obesity increases during the summer, as opposed to during the school
year. Over the summer, children become more sedentary, with increased screen
time and no regular PE classes (not to mention screen time often means snack
time, which often means junk food). </div>
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Both of these factors mean that childhood obesity is likely
to increase during Covid-19. And, both of these factors are more likely to
matter for children in lower income families. These families are more dependent
on the affordability of the shelf-stable foods. They also more often rely on
school lunches (and perhaps breakfasts) for a good portion of their daily
nutrition. Another risk factor is living in a city, particularly in a small
apartment, without access to spaces for physical activity, especially ones large
enough for social distancing. In some cities, these spaces do exist, but access
has been restricted due to Covid-19.</div>
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I asked Dr. Wang about interventions that might reduce the
risk of childhood obesity due to Covid-19. She told me that, from the outset,
even though they were closed, many school districts made it a priority to keep
offering meals (it’s something they do over the summer regularly). They
provided grab-and-go options or delivery by school bus. She has other ideas
that could help as well. The government could provide a specific subsidy to
families, like food stamps, but just for fruits and vegetables. In terms of
physical activity, schools need to be thoughtful about how to teach PE online.
As a teacher myself, trying to be innovative about teaching online, I’m
guessing that there are some thoughtful PE teachers out there with innovative
ideas about this! </div>
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Let’s talk! I would love to know what you think about this
example of unintended consequences. Please submit comments and questions. </div>
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<br /></div>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
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<![endif]-->Sharon G Harrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02041335486606441461noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5580206722939828173.post-91247981186164681302019-08-27T14:23:00.000-07:002019-08-27T14:31:26.927-07:00Sarah Roberts<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<img alt="Sarah CM Roberts, DrPH" height="184" src="https://obgyn.ucsf.edu/sites/obgyn.ucsf.edu/files/styles/profile_photo/public/Roberts.jpg?itok=ng21Z5Dk" title="Sarah CM Roberts, DrPH" width="141" /><br />
<br />
For this post, I interviewed <a href="https://obgyn.ucsf.edu/san-francisco-general-hospital/sarah-cm-roberts-drph">Sarah Roberts</a>.** She is an
Associate Professor at the University of San Francisco in the Department of
Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproductive Sciences. The focus of her work is on
how policies affect vulnerable pregnant women, including those who use alcohol
and drugs, and those who seek abortion.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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I interviewed Professor Roberts
about her paper “<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29912478">Associations Between State-Level Policies Regarding AlcoholUse Among Pregnant Women, Adverse Birth Outcomes, and Prenatal Care Utilization:Results from 1972 to 2013 Vital Statistics</a>.” Her main co-author on this paper was
<a href="http://arg.org/staff/meenakshi-sabina-subbaraman/">Dr. Mina Subbaraman</a>. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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In this paper, the authors
examined the effects of policies that target alcohol use during pregnancy. The
types of policies that exist vary by state, and the authors looked at 8 policies
altogether. Here I’ll focus on three of them: Mandatory Warning Signs (MWS),
Priority Treatment (PT), and Child Abuse/Child Neglect (CACN). MWS states that
“notices must be posted in locations where alcoholic beverages are sold. . .”
PT allows pregnant women to go to the front of the line for substance use disorder
treatment. . .,” and CACN “. . . in some cases, defines alcohol use during
pregnancy as child abuse or neglect.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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One might expect, and hope, that
these policies would lead to reductions in adverse outcomes at birth. The
authors used several measures of these adverse outcomes. Two examples were <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">low birth weight</b> and <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">pre-term birth</b>. The policies should also
encourage women to take advantage of health care more regularly, in particular
prenatal care. Their measure of this was called <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">prenatal care utilization</b>. The authors were able to obtain data (1972-2013)
from birth certificates in all 50 states. For over half of this time period,
they have every single birth certificate (!). For the rest of the time, they
have 50-100% of birth certificates. </div>
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<br /></div>
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The results? At best the finding was
that the policies have no effect on birth outcomes and prenatal care utilization;
and at worst, instead of leading to reduced adverse outcomes and increases in prenatal
care utilization, some of the policies did just the opposite. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For example, living in a state with MWS was
associated with 7% higher odds of low birth weight, 4% higher odds of pre-term
birth, and 18% lower odds of any prenatal care utilization. The authors
calculated that in 2015 there were about 7,000 excess low birth weight and pre-term
birth babies due to MWS; and there were 6,000 excess low birth weight and
12,000 excess pre-term birth babies due to CACN policies.</div>
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<br /></div>
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So, what’s happening here? In the
case of CACN, it is likely that women who use alcohol during pregnancy fear
they will be reported to Child Protective Services by a prenatal care provider
and that <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>they will then lose their
children and go to jail. In fact, Professor Roberts previously interviewed
pregnant women who use drugs, and the women revealed exactly this fear. In the
case of MWS, these signs may contribute to stigma, and hence discourage women
from disclosing their alcohol use, and asking for help. Also, some women may fear
that they’ve already harmed their baby, and not realize that stopping drinking
at any point in their pregnancy can make a difference, and that getting
prenatal care can also help. These women miss out on prenatal care, which causes
them to miss out on other, related services as well. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;">
I asked Professor Roberts about
how she would design policies differently, given these results. She told me,
“people don’t just start drinking once they’re pregnant. . . most of the
research about predictors of drinking during pregnancy says that it’s what you
were doing before you were pregnant that predicts what you do while you’re
pregnant. . . if we can think of this as alcohol policy instead of pregnancy
policy, we may be able to better reduce harm for pregnant women.” For example, we
know that states vary in how they control access to wine sales. And the authors
actually do find, in this paper, that outcomes were better for pregnant women
in states with more of this control. So, this is just one example of the type
of population-level policy that might lead to improvements for pregnant women. </div>
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<br /></div>
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I asked Professor Roberts about
some of her other recent work. <a href="https://bixbycenter.ucsf.edu/katie-woodruff-drph">Dr. Katie Woodruff</a>, who works with Professor
Roberts, is now interviewing pregnant women about their perspectives on MWS in
relation to cannabis use, and in particular in the context of its legalization.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Let’s talk! I would love to know what you think about this
example of unintended consequences. Please submit comments and questions<br />
<br />
**Thanks to Samantha Valente for getting me started on this research path. It's so interesting and important! I thoroughly enjoyed it! </div>
Sharon G Harrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02041335486606441461noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5580206722939828173.post-48602798872123921472019-08-12T17:24:00.003-07:002019-08-12T17:24:56.218-07:00Christina Gravert<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">For this post, I interviewed <a href="https://www.christinagravert.com/">Christina Gravert</a>. She is an
Assistant Professor at the University of Copenhagen in Denmark. She is a
behavioral and experimental economist. Her research focuses on why people don’t
always do what they plan, and how to design policies that help them to do so, in
their best interest. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"> <span style="line-height: 107%;">I interviewed </span>Professor Gravert about her paper “<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0047272717301895">The Hidden Costs of Nudging: Experimental Evidence from Reminders in Fundraising</a>,” which she
wrote with <a href="https://sites.google.com/site/mettetrierdamgaard/">Mette Trier Damgaard</a>. In this paper, the authors carried out a <i>field experiment</i>, which is like an
experiment in the lab, but it’s done out in the real world. They worked with a
charity to determine the effects of email reminders about giving. These
reminders are examples of what behavioral economists call <i>nudges</i>, small deliberate changes that are made to improve well-being.
The charity, of course, hoped that their reminders nudged their members to
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">There were two groups of donors in the experiment.<i> </i>One group got a single email asking for
a donation (the <i>control </i>group). The
other group also got a reminder a week later (the <i>treatment </i>group).<span> </span>This
reminder has what the authors call an <i>annoyance
cost. </i>This is a very nice example of a non-monetary cost, which economists always
include, in addition to monetary costs, when trying to understand decisions
people make. Here the annoyance can be the guilt felt or the perceived pressure
to give, and/or the time it takes to read the email. <span> </span>However, Professor Gravert emphasized to me
that all of the people in this experiment had donated to the charity before,
and had opted in to receiving emails.</span></span></div>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 6"/>
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</span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">So, what were the consequences of the reminder emails? In
general, the results were that people don’t donate unless they receive an
email, and they tend to donate within a day or two of receiving an email. The
reminders increased the number of people donating by about 66%. However, the
reminders had another <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">unintended
consequence</i>, which was to increase the rate of unsubscribing from emails
from the charity, due to the annoyance cost. In the treatment group this rate
was 3.7%, and in the control group it was only 2.1%. Doing the math, the
difference between these is 76%. Overall, it’s hard to say in the long run
whether reminders will help or hurt donations. The 66% is the effect on
one-time donations, and unsubscribing is permanent (unless the person decides
to sign up again with a different e-mail address). The net effect depends on
several factors, including the relative value the charity places on donations
now versus those in the future. In the paper, the authors give a range of
estimates for the net effect. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span> </span>I asked Professor Gravert about alternative strategies that
charities could use to avoid this unintended consequence. She told me that
charities often target their reminders based on demographic factors of their
donors. She recommends that they instead examine their donors’ behavioral
patterns more carefully, and target on these. For example, some people always
give towards the end of the year, to take advantage of the tax benefits. Another
strategy, already used by charities, is to encourage people to opt-in to a direct
debit donation scheme, eliminating the need for reminders. They could also
allow donors to adjust the frequency of the emails themselves, or they could use
text messages instead of emails. <span></span><span></span> </span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
Speaking of text messages, in related work in progress,
Professor Gravert and co-authors <a href="https://sites.google.com/site/kaibarron/">Kai Barron</a>, Mette Trier Damgaard, and <a href="https://economics.handels.gu.se/english/about-us/staff?languageId=100001&userId=xnorrl">Lisa Norrgren</a>,
are conducting another field experiment with pregnant women in South Africa. Over
the course of three months, they are using text messaging to remind the women to
take their iron pills, with the goal of identifying more precisely which type(s)
of annoyance costs might cause unsubscription. This is a very nice example of a
reminder that has the best interest of the person in mind, right? </span></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Let’s talk! I would love to know what you think about this
example of unintended consequences. Please submit comments and questions.</span></span></div>
<br />
Sharon G Harrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02041335486606441461noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5580206722939828173.post-4004373522985439282019-03-29T12:50:00.000-07:002019-03-29T12:50:10.477-07:00Maria Fitzpatrick<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<img alt="placeholder" src="https://cfadmin.human.cornell.edu/FAR/uploads/portrait/portrait_mdf98.jpg" /> </div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
For this post, I interviewed <a href="https://www.human.cornell.edu/people/mdf98">Professor Maria Fitzpatrick</a>. She
is an Associate Professor in the Department of Policy Analysis and Management
at Cornell University. In addition, she is the Director of the Cornell
Institute for Public Affairs. Her research focuses on policies that affect
children and families, and in particular, policies related to education. She
studies them through the lens of economics. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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I interviewed Professor Fitzpatrick about her paper, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4244602/">“Early Retirement Incentives and Student Achievement.”</a> In this paper, Professor Fitzpatrick
and her coauthor, <a href="https://www.human.cornell.edu/people/mfl55">Michael Lovenheim</a>, look at how these early retirement incentives
(ERI) programs for teachers affect students’ academic performance. The results
might surprise you. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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Professor Fitzpatrick explained to me that schools, or any
employers, offer ERI’s as a cost-saving measure, since more experienced workers
are usually more expensive than less experienced workers. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Instead of laying off workers, employers give
them bonuses to choose to stop working, and retire early. In some cases, employers
are suffering from the effects of a recession, and this is a convenient way to
reduce the workforce. But there are other cases where the technology of an industry
has changed over time, and newer, more recently trained workers are
better-suited for certain jobs. </div>
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<br />
In the case of teachers, their pension plans are often designed
so that it makes the most financial sense for them to work until a particular
cutoff date, and retire on that date. Because of the ERI programs, they can now
afford to retire early. </div>
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<br /></div>
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The question these authors are asking is: how do
ERI programs affect student learning? Some previous work has found that teacher
effectiveness increases with experience. So we might expect that, when these
more experienced teachers are replaced with new teachers, student performance
would decrease. </div>
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To test this, these authors measure performance with scores
on standardized tests in math and English of third, sixth, and eighth graders. Using
data from Illinois in the 1990s, they compare scores before and after ERI
programs. They actually find that test scores <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">increase</b> as a result of the program. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br />
</div>
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So what’s happening here? This is a policy that gives teachers
a choice to retire early. While on average teacher quality seems to improve
with experience, it’s likely that the least productive teachers are the ones
who are taking advantage of the ERI programs: teachers who no longer enjoy
teaching and are just waiting to reach that cutoff date, or maybe someone who
has recently been sick and hasn’t been able to consistently come to school. We
probably all have examples from our own experience of teachers who would fall
into this category. Once these teachers take advantage of an ERI program, the
higher quality experienced teachers remain, and test scores increase. Hence, we
have an example of <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">positive unintended
consequences</b>!</div>
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The authors also poke around at how different students might
be affected differently. One important finding is that the largest increase in
test scores from teacher retirements happens in schools that are in low income
neighborhoods. This makes sense, because previous work has found that teachers
tend to move to wealthier districts over their careers, and moving is easier
for higher quality teachers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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Even though the unintended consequences of this policy were
positive, I did ask Professor Fitzpatrick if the results make her think that
there might be better ways to design this policy. She told me that this study
sheds light on the design of the pension plans: keeping teachers around until
that cutoff date, and/or giving them an incentive to retire early may not be
the best way to go when thinking about retaining the highest quality teachers. Instead,
policymakers should be thinking about creative ways to retain the best teachers. </div>
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<br /></div>
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I asked Professor Fitzpatrick about some of her other recent
work. In her paper, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28983134">“Pension-spiking, Free-riding, and the Effects of PensionReform on Teachers' Earnings,”</a> she finds some very interesting unintended
consequences of pension reform. Pension spiking happens when teachers work a
lot towards the end of their careers, because their pensions are based on their
work in these years. The government of Illinois tried to reduce pension payouts
by preventing teachers from working a lot in just their last couple of years. Teachers
responded by working more in the preceding years; so even though pension
spiking appeared smoother, the pension fund did not save any money. </div>
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Let’s talk! I would love to know what you think about this
example of unintended consequences. Please submit comments and questions.</div>
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<br /></div>
Sharon G Harrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02041335486606441461noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5580206722939828173.post-23292043449617597542019-03-13T13:54:00.000-07:002019-03-13T13:54:12.770-07:00Carly Robinson<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
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<img alt="Carly Robinson" height="140" src="https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/carlyrobinson/files/carlyrobinson_photo.jpg?m=1490370135" width="180" /></div>
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For this post, I interviewed <a href="https://scholar.harvard.edu/carlyrobinson">Carly Robinson</a> about her paper
<a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3219502">“The Demotivating Effect (and Unintended Message) of Awards.”</a> Carly is a PhD
candidate in Education at Harvard University. In her research, she focuses on experimentally
testing specific measures that can be taken to improve students’ educational
outcomes.</div>
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This paper is co-authored with <a href="http://www.janagallus.com/">Jana Gallus</a>, <a href="https://cepa.stanford.edu/people/monica-lee">Monica Lee</a>, and
<a href="https://www.hks.harvard.edu/faculty/todd-rogers">Todd Rogers</a>. The award that this paper looks at is one given to middle and high
school students in California for excellent attendance. <a href="https://new.every1graduates.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/FINALChronicAbsenteeismReport_May16.pdf">Several studies</a> have shown that students with better attendance
perform better in school. In many states, average daily attendance rates are
also a determinant of funding for school districts. So, schools might be motivated
to increase attendance for both of these reasons. </div>
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The standard intuition that most of us have for awards more
generally is that once someone receives one for an accomplishment, we would
expect them to continue to strive to achieve in that realm. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In fact, in California, the government has
encouraged schools to recognize students for good attendance. These authors
wanted to see how effective different types of rewards were in encouraging good
attendance after the announcement of the award. So, they conducted a <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">field experiment</i>. A field experiment is
like an experiment in the lab, but it’s done out in the real world. These
researchers conducted their experiment on more than 15,000 middle and high
school students in California. There were three groups of students<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">: </i>one group didn’t get an award (the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">control </i>group), one group was told that
they had the chance to earn an award for having perfect attendance in February (a
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">prospective</i> award for their future
behavior), and one earned a <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">retrospective</i>
award for already having perfect attendance in a previous month. The
retrospective award was an unannounced, surprise award. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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The researchers expected both award groups to have better
attendance than the control group. But what they found was that those students
who received the surprise, retrospective award missed 8% more days of school in
February than those who did not receive an award. And the attendance of the
students who had a chance to earn an award in February – the prospective group
– was no different than that of the control group in that month. But in March
their attendance decreased. So, both types of awards actually led to <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">reduced</b> attendance after the award
period was over.</div>
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So, what’s happening here? The researchers think that, once
students earn an award, they believe that<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>they have at least met, and likely surpassed what’s expected of them,
and so they feel licensed to miss school going forward. And, interestingly, the
researchers also find that academically low performing students have more
absences after the award period than their high performing peers. Since these students
are probably least likely to enjoy school, they may use having earned the attendance
award to negotiate missing more school going forward. </div>
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So, our standard intuition, and California’s recommendations,
don’t appear to be working as intended! And, just in case you think that you
should have known better: the researchers surveyed teachers and administrators;
and only 2% of them predicted that an award would reduce attendance after the
award period. </div>
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I asked Carly what recommendations she has for improving
school attendance, since awards don’t seem to work.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>First, she pointed out that one reason these
awards might not work is that good attendance is something that students should
be doing all the time, and it is therefore not really award-worthy. A better
way to reduce absences is to keep parents informed. Carly says that parents
chronically underestimate their children’s absences. In<i> </i><a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2929600">this paper</a>, you can see the results of another field experiment in
which Carly and her coauthors gave parents real time information about the
number of days their children had missed. As a result, attendance did improve.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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Let’s talk! I would love to know what you think about this
example of unintended consequences. Please submit comments and questions.</div>
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<br /></div>
Sharon G Harrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02041335486606441461noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5580206722939828173.post-19275415102342090562018-07-03T17:32:00.000-07:002018-07-03T17:32:38.891-07:00Joseph Hotz<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<img alt="" src="https://public.econ.duke.edu/~vjh3/hotz_web_size.jpg" style="height: 250px; width: 167px;" /></div>
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For this post, I interviewed <a href="http://public.econ.duke.edu/~vjh3/" target="_blank">Professor Joseph Hotz</a>. He is
the Arts and Sciences Professor of Economics at Duke University. He is a labor
economist who specializes in the economics of the family. His research spans
the entire life cycle of the family, including the relationships between
parents and children at various stages of their development.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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I interviewed Professor Hotz about his paper, “<a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.101.5.1775" target="_blank">The Impact of Regulations on the Supply and Quality of Care in Child Care Markets</a>.” In this
paper, Professor Hotz and his coauthor, <a href="http://www.u.arizona.edu/~mxiao/" target="_blank">Professor Mo Xiao</a>, seek to investigate the
effects of policies that are designed to improve the quality of child care in
the U.S. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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Child care centers are regulated at the state level. The
regulations are mostly focused on insuring the welfare of children in the
centers. They include: (1) maximum child to staff ratios, which vary by age of
child; (2) maximum group size; and (3) educational requirements of staff. They also
might include other rules like background checks for the staff, and some
requirements for safety like equipment checks. But these authors focus on the
three that I’ve enumerated, which are widely adopted by states. The specificity
of the regulations, and their severity, vary by state.</div>
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There are also two types of centers: center-based, and
home-based or family-based. The home-based centers tend to be smaller, and less
stringently regulated. Developmental psychologists generally agree that
center-based care is of higher quality, in terms of educational enrichment, than
home-based care. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span></div>
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The authors have detailed data about both types of child
care centers in all 50 states, over the period from 1987 to 1997. And, it turns
out that there are some interesting <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">unintended
consequences</b> of the regulations. For one, the authors find that states that
have more stringently regulated center-based care have fewer of these centers;
and in particular it is low income neighborhoods that lose these centers, as
compared to high income neighborhoods. Families tend to find care close to home, so it seems that these regulations, designed to ensure that centers are
developmentally enriching, instead limit access to them; and more so for the families
that might need them the most. In fact, as an example, if the average child to
staff ratio (7.5) is imposed in low income child care markets, the number of
centers would fall by 10%, whereas this requirement would lead to an increase
of 8.7% in the number of centers in high income neighborhoods. Further, with
fewer center-based care options, these low income children end up in
family-based centers, in what is generally considered lower quality care.</div>
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There is some good news. The regulations seem to be working:
the centers that do remain as a result of these stringent regulations tend to
be of higher quality. However, again, these centers tend to be located in high
income neighborhoods. So, overall, high income families are the ones benefiting
from this care. All in all, it seems that high income families benefit from
these regulations, while low income families might struggle to gain access to
the best quality centers. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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I asked Professor Hotz if there would be a better way to
design child care regulations, to avoid these negative unintended consequences.
He told me that he believes that subsidies to low income households should be
the focus. Such subsidies do exist, but the emphasis has often been on the
parents, with the goal of helping a parent, usually a mother, get off of
welfare and into work. The subsidy will get a child into daycare, but with less
attention paid to the quality of the care. He argues that the focus should be
on the child. For example, it should not be a requirement that the mother must
work in order to receive the subsidy. Developmental psychologists have made
some headway on this issue, and it’s made some progress in Congress. But it has
not gotten off the ground yet. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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I asked Professor Hotz about some of his other recent work.
In<a href="http://public.econ.duke.edu/~vjh3/working_papers/StepkinTransfers.pdf" target="_blank"> this paper, </a>he and his coauthors are studying families with stepkin. They
are interested in learning about how much time stepparents spend with their
adult stepchildren, and how much time adult children spend with their elderly
stepparents. </div>
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Let’s talk! I would love to know what you think about this
example of unintended consequences. Please submit comments and questions.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<br />
<span style="color: #1f497d;"></span>Sharon G Harrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02041335486606441461noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5580206722939828173.post-26081433720382833352017-09-22T11:56:00.000-07:002018-08-31T12:57:16.149-07:00Jenna Stearns<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<img border="0" height="320" src="https://sites.google.com/site/stearnsje/_/rsrc/1429759377167/home/Jenna_myerson.jpg?height=320&width=230" width="230" /><br />
<br />
For this post, I interviewed Professor <a href="https://sites.google.com/site/stearnsje/" target="_blank">Jenna Stearns</a>,
Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of California, Davis. She is
a labor economist; and her research is centered on understanding what she calls
“family-friendly” policies in the workplace.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>She is particularly interested in how they change the decisions women
make about their employment, their family structure, and their health.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In “<a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20160613" target="_blank">Equal but Inequitable: Who Benefits from Gender-Neutral Tenure Clock Stopping Policies?</a>,”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Professor
Stearns and two co-authors, <a href="https://www.cmc.edu/academic/faculty/profile/heather-antecol" target="_blank">Heather Antecol</a> and <a href="http://econ.ucsb.edu/~kelly/" target="_blank">Kelly Bedard,</a> look at an
example of a family-friendly policy that I myself, as an academic, have taken
advantage of: stopping the tenure clock after childbirth or adoption. So, I was
naturally drawn to this research. Most of you probably don’t know how this
detail of the tenure system works in the academic world. This is a policy that
allows assistant professors to extend the time until they come up for tenure,
typically by a year. Initially, colleges and universities created these
policies only for women, to “level the playing field.” That is, to try to help
make up for the time women spend away from work after childbirth. But now it is
most common for these policies to be gender-neutral, so that both new mothers
and new fathers can take advantage of them, usually a maximum of twice before
tenure time.</div>
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<br /></div>
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In this paper, the authors study the effects of these
policies only at the top 50 Economics departments in the United States. They
have data on over 1300 assistant professors hired in these departments between
1980 and 2005. They can’t tell exactly who took advantage of this program, but
this is where the power of statistical analysis comes in. By separating out the
various characteristics of the professors and the universities, they can
estimate the effects the policy has had, and on whom.<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The news is disheartening for women, but could be worse. They
find that males at an institution with a gender-neutral clock stopping policy have
about a 17% higher probability of getting tenure than they would have had before
their institution adopted a clock stopping policy. On the other hand, women are
about 19% LESS likely to get tenure after their institution adopts the policy.
However, while tenure rates do fall for women at these top 50 institutions, the
evidence shows that these women do go on to get tenure at other, sometimes, lower
ranked institutions. What seems to be happening is that at the most prestigious
institutions, the clock stopping policy allows men time to produce additional
publications in the top 5 journals in Economics. On the other hand, women are
not able to increase their publications in these journals. At these
institutions, publishing in these journals is key to earning tenure. </div>
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<br /></div>
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I think this research is important because it adds something
new to the evidence on why women are not able to make it to the top of their
professions. However, Professor Stearns is careful to point out that these
results may be somewhat specific to Economics as a discipline. In Economics,
especially at the most prestigious institutions, publishing in the top 5
journals is important for earning tenure, and it can take a long time to get these
papers published. Hence, the one-year extension of the tenure clock early on in
their career is very valuable for assistant professors in these departments, if
it helps them get their research into these outlets. The gender-neutral clock
stopping policy may not prove to be detrimental to women in other fields. </div>
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<br /></div>
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I asked Professor Stearns how she thinks these policies
should be designed differently, now that we know they are not working the way
they were intended. The thing is, one of the reasons tenure clock stopping
policies have changed from female-only to gender-neutral is because of the
stigma associated with taking time off at childbirth: women feared that they
were being perceived as less committed to their careers under the female-only
version. But Professor Stearns believes that this work shows that the policies
need to take into account that it is women who generally bear most of the
burden of childcare; and that any policy should be designed to help encourage
men to prioritize childcare -- during the tenure clock stopping, and in general.
She suggests that the benefit can perhaps be available for both males and
females, but be more generous for females. </div>
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<br /></div>
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I wondered whether this work has implications outside the
world of academia. Professor Stearns mentioned law firms, where young lawyers come
up for partner, in a similar way that assistant professors come up for tenure. They
have one shot at it, early on, so policies like this could be similarly
effective (or not?!) in the law profession. I am very curious about the potential
implications for enacting family-friendly policies likes this more widely in
the business world, and maybe even in other professions. </div>
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<br /></div>
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I asked Professor Stearns about some of her other research.
She is currently working on a <a href="https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxzdGVhcm5zamV8Z3g6NjRhOWNiNmQwZDgwZmIzNQ" target="_blank">project</a> that looks at the effects of different
types of maternity leaves. So this work is specifically about policies designed
only for women who take time off after childbirth. While some of these provide
mothers with an income stream, others instead ensure that their jobs will be
waiting for them. Her preliminary findings are that the latter types of
policies work better to keep women in their jobs in the long run.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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Let’s talk! I would love to know what you think about this
example of unintended consequences. Please submit comments and questions.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
Sharon G Harrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02041335486606441461noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5580206722939828173.post-90311341626331592122017-06-19T17:44:00.000-07:002017-06-19T17:49:47.902-07:00Michael Luca<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<img alt="Photo of Michael Luca" border="0" src="http://sands.hbs.edu/photos/facstaff/Ent602417.jpg" /> </div>
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For this post, I interviewed <a href="http://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/profile.aspx?facId=602417" target="_blank">Professor Michael Luca</a>,
Assistant Professor at Harvard Business School. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Professor Luca’s research and teaching focus
on the economics of digitization and on using data to improve policy and managerial
decisions. In his work he has collaborated with organizations ranging from Yelp
to the City of Boston.</div>
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Professor Luca wrote “<a href="http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/app.20160213" target="_blank">Racial Discrimination in the Sharing Economy: Evidence from a Field Experiment</a>” with <a href="http://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/profile.aspx?facId=417579" target="_blank">Benjamin Edelman</a> and <a href="http://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/profile.aspx?facId=743222" target="_blank">Dan Svirsky</a>, both colleagues at Harvard Business School. I first heard about this
study when it was a working paper, and Professor Luca was interviewed on the
podcast <a href="http://www.npr.org/2016/04/26/475623339/-airbnbwhileblack-how-hidden-bias-shapes-the-sharing-economy" target="_blank"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Hidden Brain</i>.</a> In this study,
Professor Luca and his coauthors examined the online marketplace, or what academics
call the sharing economy. In particular, they wanted to see how the differing
policies of websites play out for the consumers who use them.</div>
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Think about the transactions you carry out on eBay or Amazon.
They are pretty much anonymous: you usually know nothing about the people you
are doing business with. But, what about Airbnb? If you’ve used it, you know
that this site requires users to share personal information in order to
participate. The requirements have changed over time, and they are different
for hosts vs. guests. You must share at least your name, and hosts must post
their pictures. Looking at a random sample of guests, Professor Luca and his coauthors
found that 44% had posted profile pictures. The stated reason is that sharing this
personal information builds trust between host and guest. But, as heard on the
Hidden Brain podcast, this sharing of personal information has led to the
unintended consequence of racial discrimination, against African American
guests. In addition to the anecdotes you hear on the podcast and elsewhere (search
#airbnbwhileblack on Twitter to see more), this paper provides evidence that
discrimination on the platform is widespread.</div>
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How did the authors find evidence of racial discrimination
on Airbnb? They exploited the fact that Airbnb users must share personal
information, in particular their names. They created 20 Airbnb accounts, 10
whose names sounded distinctively African American and 10 whose names sounded
distinctively white. Half of each were female, and half were male. Examples of
female African American sounding names included Tanisha Jackson and Latoya
Williams and examples of male white sounding names included Brent Baker and Brad
Walsh. In total, they sent about 6,400 messages to hosts in 5 cities requesting
bookings. It turned out that guests with white sounding names were accepted
about 50 percent of the time while those with African American sounding names
were accepted only 42 percent of the time. </div>
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But, you might wonder, who is carrying out this
discrimination? The authors found that even hosts who they thought might not
discriminate were: hosts with multiple listings (many of whom are subject to
and violating existing discrimination laws), hosts in diverse neighborhoods,
hosts with more experience, and hosts with lower priced listings all
discriminated. The only hosts who didn’t discriminate were the ones who had
hosted an African American guest in the past. (The authors were able to gather
this last bit of information from pictures of previous guests of the hosts.) <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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Airbnb is aware of these findings, and has begun to take
action. A <a href="http://blog.atairbnb.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/REPORT_Airbnbs-Work-to-Fight-Discrimination-and-Build-Inclusion.pdf?3c10be" target="_blank">32 page report</a> responding to the mounting evidence is posted on their
website. A team of data scientists now has the responsibility of
evaluating this issue internally. Professor Luca has met with members of the
staff, and shared <a href="https://hbr.org/2016/12/fixing-discrimination-in-online-marketplaces" target="_blank">possible solutions</a>. One would be to eliminate completely the sharing of personal
information. This, however, is not something that Airbnb is willing to do –
Airbnb clearly wants to maintain a culture of sharing personal details, in
contrast with Priceline and other short-term rental platforms. They do have an
option called “Instant Book”, which to be clear, existed before, but now the
goal is to get 1/3 of properties booked through it. From the Airbnb website: “Instant
Book listings don't require approval from the host before they can be booked.
Instead, guests can just choose their travel dates, book, and discuss check-in
plans with the host.” So, it makes Airbnb more like your standard hotel site. Professor
Luca argues that the effectiveness of instant booking in curbing discrimination
depends largely on which hosts are using it: if those who were discriminating
start to adopt it, it will make more of a difference, but if it is mainly
adopted by people who were already less likely to discriminate, then the impact
will be more limited. Airbnb also has added to its terms of service, which now includes
an anti-discrimination policy, which every host must read and sign.</div>
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But, what if the hosts don’t even realize that they are
discriminating? Professor Luca explained to me that this could be part of what
is happening here: <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>it is what
psychologists call <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">unconscious bias</i>. Hosts
make decisions about who to accept, and don’t notice that they are systematically
turning down African American guests.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Maybe
these new policies will make them more aware. Hopefully they will now at least stop
and think about the possibility that they are discriminating, and that they have
the ability to take action to prevent it. (As a teacher, this reminded me of
the existing evidence that all teachers, even female teachers, call on boys in
the classroom more than they do on girls. I think this must be unconscious bias
as well.)</div>
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Beyond his research on discrimination, Professor Luca has
other work about information in online platforms. For example, in his working
paper, “<a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2951110" target="_blank">Survival of the Fittest: The Impact of the Minimum Wage on Firm Exit</a>,”
with <a href="https://sites.google.com/site/daraleeluca/" target="_blank">Dara Lee Luca</a>, he
uses data from Yelp to study how increases in the minimum wage affect
restaurants. The authors find that the least expensive restaurants are forced
to close when the minimum wage increases. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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Let’s talk! I would love to know what you think about this
example of unintended consequences. Please submit comments and questions.</div>
Sharon G Harrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02041335486606441461noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5580206722939828173.post-68254459541278640822017-05-04T11:23:00.000-07:002017-05-04T11:31:10.789-07:00Mark Stehr<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<img alt="Mark Stehr" class="img-responsive" src="https://www.lebow.drexel.edu/sites/default/files/profile_office/professional/1455209917-mark-stehr.jpg" style="width: 100%;" title="" /></div>
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For this post, I interviewed <a href="http://www.lebow.drexel.edu/people/markstehr" target="_blank">Professor Mark Stehr</a>. Associate
Professor Stehr is the Assistant Director of the School of Economics at the
LeBow College of Business at Drexel University. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He is a health economist. His most recent work
is at the intersection of health economics and behavioral economics.<br />
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In <a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w15658" target="_blank">“Intended and Unintended Consequences of Youth Bicycle Helmet Laws,”</a> Professor Stehr and
his co-author, <a href="https://as.vanderbilt.edu/econ/bio/christopher-carpenter" target="_blank">Christopher Carpenter</a>, study a policy designed to protect people.
In the US, 21 states have passed laws that require at least some people to wear
helmets while riding bicycles. In most cases, the laws require those under 16
years of age to wear helmets. The perspective that this paper takes is that the
goals of the laws are to save the lives of these children if they are hit by a
car, or involved in another type of serious accident, while riding their bike.</div>
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This isn’t the first paper to look at this issue. Previous
work, by <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/pam.20029/abstract" target="_blank">Grant and Rutner (2004)</a>, found that helmet laws were in fact effective
in saving the lives of bicycle riders. That paper used data from 1990-2000. In
this paper, the authors confirm this result using data from 1991-2005. They
find that helmet laws reduce fatalities from bicycle riding among youths by
almost 19%. </div>
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The authors are able to find this result by comparing the states
with the helmet laws to those without the laws. In addition, they provide
evidence to bolster the credibility of this result: the helmet laws do <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">not</b> significantly affect fatalities among
16-30 year olds, who are not required to wear helmets.<br />
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</div>
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Those of you who live in states with one of these laws, and/or
who have children, might not be surprised to hear the next interesting result
in this paper. Not everyone is adhering to the laws. The authors are lucky
enough to have access to two different surveys, one of parents and of children. Among parents, 35% say their oldest
child never wears a helmet; but 83% of children say they never wear a helmet. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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Yet, the helmet laws are still effective. This is partly
because of the most interesting finding of the paper: an <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">unintended consequence</b> of the helmet laws is that they cause some
children to stop riding their bikes altogether! Helmet laws lead to a 3-5% reduction
in the probability of a youth riding a bike in the past year. </div>
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Why does this happen? It’s likely that, when asked to don a
helmet, due to concerns about comfort and looks, some kids decide they would
rather not ride a bike at all. Evidence from surveys shows that kids complain
about the fit of helmets: they are often tight and sweaty. And kids are always
concerned about looking “uncool” while wearing a helmet. If you ask me, this is
probably the #1 reason that kids aren’t wearing helmets.</div>
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It would be very
interesting to know what activities these kids take up, instead of bike riding:
do they skateboard (possibly without helmets)? Do they play video games? In some
cases, kids use bikes for transportation; and so they might be taking the bus,
walking, or otherwise getting a ride. This paper acknowledges these questions,
but it’s not a goal of the authors to answer them. (Note to self: future post?)</div>
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I asked Professor Stehr whether he thought the state
governments -- the policymakers in this case -- might have been able to foresee
that this unintended consequence could happen. He told me that he didn’t know
for sure, but that this example is very similar to the implementation of
motorcycle helmet laws. There is already lots of evidence that these work in
reducing fatalities, and that these motorcycle riders don’t like wearing the helmets
either. </div>
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Lastly, I asked Professor Stehr what he would recommend
policymakers do differently, now that we know about these unintended
consequences. He thinks that manufacturers should make bicycle helmets that
kids think are cool and stylish. He also has general recommendations for
bicycle safety besides helmet laws. For example, he told me about his
experience riding his bike in Philadelphia:</div>
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“I’ve been riding my bicycle in Philadelphia for 15 years. I
used to have people yell and honk at me to get on the sidewalk where I belong.
Of course, bicycle riding on the sidewalk is illegal. Bicycles are supposed to
be on the roads. In Philadelphia, they have painted what they call “sharrows,”
which are a picture of a bicycle and an arrow, on the street, all over the
city, to let motorists know that bicyclists are supposed to be there. I think
it’s worked. No one has yelled at me in years. It’s made me feel safer.” </div>
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I asked Professor Stehr about some of his other recent work.
He told me about a field experiment he is working on with several co-authors. You
can read about it in <a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w23188" target="_blank">this working paper</a>. A field experiment is like an
experiment in the lab, but it takes place out in the real world. In this case,
the experimenters want to understand how to best use incentives to encourage
people to exercise. For example, they compare paying them more up front to
spreading out payment. More broadly, Professor Stehr has been researching how
to incentivize people who genuinely want to change their behavior – like eat
healthier or quit smoking -- <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>but
repeatedly come up short.</div>
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Let’s talk! I would love to know what you think about this
example of unintended consequences. Please submit comments and questions. </div>
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<![endif]--></a>Sharon G Harrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02041335486606441461noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5580206722939828173.post-6078019246700928792017-03-07T17:36:00.000-08:002017-03-07T17:37:02.917-08:00Lucas Davis<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="heading 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="heading 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="heading 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="heading 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="heading 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="heading 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="heading 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="index 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="index 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="index 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="index 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="index 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="footnote text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="footer"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="index heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="table of figures"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="envelope address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="footnote reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="table of authorities"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
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<img alt="head" height="228" src="https://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/ldavis/untitled.jpg" width="188" /><br />
<br />
For this post, I interviewed <a href="http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/ldavis/">Professor Lucas Davis</a> about his
paper, “<a href="http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/ldavis/Davis%20JPE%202008.pdf">The Effect of Driving Restrictions on Air Quality in Mexico City</a>.” </div>
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<br /></div>
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Professor Davis is an Associate Professor at the Haas School
of Business at the University of California, Berkeley. He is also the <span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Jeffrey A. Jacobs Distinguished Professor</span>
in Business and Technology there, as well as the Faculty Director of the Energy
Institute at the Haas School of Business, and a Research Associate at the National
Bureau of Economic Research. He specializes in the economics of energy and the
environment. </div>
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<br /></div>
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In 1989, the government of Mexico City enacted a policy to
control air pollution. The policy, called Hoy No Circula (HNC for short) is
still in place today. The government was very concerned about the extremely
high levels of air pollution, and they thought that placing a restriction on
driving would be a good way to reduce it. The policy bans most drivers from
driving their vehicle one weekday per week. For each vehicle, the last digit of
the license plate determines which day the vehicle cannot be driven.</div>
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<br /></div>
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In Professor Davis’ own words, “I lived in Mexico City in
the 90s, and I coped with this program on a routine basis. I found it to be a
huge hassle. . . I always assumed that if there was so much pain being
inflicted by this policy, then there must be must be some evidence of its
effectiveness.” He carries out a very thorough search for such evidence, but he
just cannot find any.</div>
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<br /></div>
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First, he looks at the daily pattern of pollution after the
policy is enacted. Carbon monoxide, for example, which vehicles emit, follows a
typical rush-hour pattern. It peaks at 9 am and at 6 pm. He wants to be
thorough, so he also examines several other pollutants, including nitrogen
dioxide, ozone and sulfur dioxide. None decreases after the policy. He also
finds that drivers seem to have simply switched to using their cars more on
weekends. </div>
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<br /></div>
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When I asked Professor Davis what the unintended
consequences of this policy were he said, “The problem with telling people that
they can’t drive their car once a week is that it means they are going to look
for substitutes on that day; and anecdotally, long before I wrote this paper, I
was hearing that people went out and bought more cars.” <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He goes on to say, “Now if, for example, I have
a third car, I can loan it to my teenager the other days of the week, and
increase my family’s total driving.” </div>
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<br /></div>
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Professor Davis looks for solid evidence of these anecdotes
he was hearing. He finds it. First, he finds that gasoline sales did not
decrease after the policy. He also finds evidence that both the number of registered
vehicles and sales of vehicles increased after HNC. And, think about it, what
kinds of cars do you think people would go out and buy? He discovers that people
bought mostly <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">used</i> vehicles, not new
ones. So, most of the extra vehicles on the road were high emissions vehicles.
Of course, this ended up <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">contributing</i>
to air pollution and gasoline consumption! </div>
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<br /></div>
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How else did people react to this policy? He has some evidence
that they took taxis more; and the taxis in Mexico city at the time the policy
was implemented consisted of mostly relatively old, high-emissions vehicles,
also making air pollution <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">worse</i>
instead of better. </div>
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<br /></div>
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But wouldn’t people take public transportation? It was a
stated goal of the program. It’s a very good system (subways and buses), but he
finds no evidence that people switched to it. In fact, Professor Davis’
evidence is that ridership <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">decreased</i>
slightly. He thinks that this might be because the people who drive to work are
from the middle and upper classes and hence value time highly. They therefore
took taxis and bought additional cars instead, as we just discussed.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Professor Davis struggles to identify any real winners from
this policy. He thinks that everyone, except maybe the taxi drivers, has
suffered in Mexico City, because of this policy. It’s been a huge
inconvenience, and it just hasn’t worked. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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But, it turns out, several countries have this kinds of
policy in their big cities, and more are planning to implement it, including
Delhi and Paris. Several large cities in South America also still use it. So I
asked Professor Davis what types of policies he thinks should replace this
policy. One suggestion he had was better emissions testing. He said that
emissions testing is sometimes too lax, and sometimes even fraudulent. With
tighter standards, we can keep offending vehicles off of the roads. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Let’s talk! I would love to know what you think about this
example of unintended consequences. Please submit comments and questions. </div>
Sharon G Harrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02041335486606441461noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5580206722939828173.post-88567512321770314172017-01-16T11:27:00.000-08:002017-02-02T18:08:55.508-08:00Jennifer Doleac and Benjamin Hansen<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKAxDw7wx50LDvrmA7egnDho1W2ard1mPUxq5mBXhIxIflBG4AUhWDy8cxW7IJCK4aCiHq8r7cYqlLf4j_RnmCvaMnO0rcBVFV78Tq1UPGmCZIz3FbOZPapTy5D2hfBub6XJ7guFSL7RE/s1600/Doleac_websize.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="132" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKAxDw7wx50LDvrmA7egnDho1W2ard1mPUxq5mBXhIxIflBG4AUhWDy8cxW7IJCK4aCiHq8r7cYqlLf4j_RnmCvaMnO0rcBVFV78Tq1UPGmCZIz3FbOZPapTy5D2hfBub6XJ7guFSL7RE/s200/Doleac_websize.jpg" width="200" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKAxDw7wx50LDvrmA7egnDho1W2ard1mPUxq5mBXhIxIflBG4AUhWDy8cxW7IJCK4aCiHq8r7cYqlLf4j_RnmCvaMnO0rcBVFV78Tq1UPGmCZIz3FbOZPapTy5D2hfBub6XJ7guFSL7RE/s1600/Doleac_websize.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Benjamin Hansen profile picture" class="picture " src="https://casprofile.uoregon.edu/sites/casprofile2.uoregon.edu/files/picture-1110-fe66c7f930a54a5dc60f000c24c3c8be.jpg" /></a></div>
For this post, I interviewed Professors Jennifer Doleac and
Benjamin Hansen about their paper, <a href="http://jenniferdoleac.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Doleac_Hansen_BanTheBox.pdf">“Does ‘Ban the Box’ Help or Hurt Low-Skilled Workers? Statistical Discrimination and Employment Outcomes When Criminal Histories are Hidden.”</a> </div>
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First, let me tell you about the authors. <a href="http://pages.uoregon.edu/bchansen/">Professor Hansen</a>
is a visiting research scholar at Crime Lab New York, here in New York City,
while he is on sabbatical from his position as an Associate Professor at the
University of Oregon. He is also a research associate at the National Bureau of
Economic Research and<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>research fellow at
IZA, the Institute for the Study of Labor Economics. He specializes in the
Economics of risky behaviors. This includes substance abuse, drunk driving and
alcohol use and abuse. He also studies the use of drugs that were illegal and
are becoming legal, like the timely case of marijuana; and the economics of
criminality. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="http://jenniferdoleac.com/">Professor Doleac</a> is an
Assistant Professor of Public Policy and Economics at the University of
Virginia, and a Nonresident Fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings
Institution. She’s also an Affiliate at the University of Chicago Crime Lab.
She studies crime and discrimination; and she’s finding that these two areas of
interest have become overlapping, as you will see in the example we study
below. In her work on crime she often looks at how new technologies can affect
public safety.</div>
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In this paper, the authors discuss a policy called “Ban the
Box,” or BTB for short. The goal of BTB is to help people with criminal records
find a job. It has this name because typically, especially for low wage jobs,
there is a box that potential employers ask applicants to check, when they fill
out a job application, if they have a criminal record. Often potential
employers are reluctant to hire anyone who checks this box. So, the idea of BTB
is to hide this information at the beginning of the process, and instead reveal
it at the end, right before an offer might be made. This will give the
applicant a chance to put his or her best foot forward, a chance to establish a
good rapport with the employer, increasing the chance to be hired, despite the
criminal record.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Why is this important? It’s important because there is
evidence of high recidivism rates among the prison population. That is, too
many people end up committing another crime, and back in jail. And securing
employment is an essential way to build a stable life, preventing this
recidivism.<br />
<br /></div>
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The authors are able to assess the effects of BTB because it
took effect in different cities at different times. Unfortunately, they don’t
have data on individual workers and whether each has a criminal record. So, here’s
what they do. They focus on a portion of the population they think will be most
affected by this policy: young males without a college degree (low skilled
workers). They compare the share of this population that is working where the
policy was adopted later to the share that is working where it was adopted
earlier. What they find is that, in particular, minorities (blacks and
Hispanics) in this group experience a <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">reduction</b>
in employment <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">after</b> the policy is in
place. </div>
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What’s going on here? This policy completely backfires! When
BTB is implemented, according to Professor Doleac, “the policy itself doesn’t
do anything to change employers’ feelings about hiring someone with a criminal
record. If employers don’t want to hire someone with a criminal record, then when
they can’t see who has a record, they might try to guess who has a record.
Because interactions in the criminal justice system in this country are so
highly correlated with race, we might expect that employers would discriminate
against young, low skilled black and Hispanic men.” <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The reduction in employment was about 5% for
young black men and about 3% for young Hispanic men. These are pretty big
numbers. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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In social-science-speak this unintended consequence is the
result of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">statistical discrimination </i>on
the parts of the employers. This happens when members of a particular group are
discriminated against because information is missing about them. So, the
observer is forced to use only the information available. The easily available
information, race in this case, is used in place of, as a substitute for, the
missing information. The very policy that was meant to help those with a
criminal record turns out to hurt them, <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">and
it hurts others who don’t even have a criminal record!</b></div>
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It certainly seems that withholding information from
employers isn’t the right policy in this case. Professors Doleac and Hansen
would recommend instead giving employers <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">more</i>
information. Instead of a BTB policy, they would recommend a policy in which a
criminal history is revealed along with what it means. For example, employers
need to understand the different crimes, and whether they might be related to
job performance. Previous work has shown that when employers are allowed to
gather more information on minorities, it helps the minority job seekers in
their quest to find work. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This makes a
lot of sense. <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2759560">One paper</a> found that potential employers banned from conducting
credit checks on job applicants used race as a proxy for credit score, and
employment for blacks fell by at least 7%. </div>
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<br /></div>
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I asked the authors about their related work. Professor
Hansen has another paper on the effects of a criminal history on employment. He
examines what happens if blood alcohol content (BAC) threshold cutoffs are
removed. With a BAC cutoff of 0.080, someone who gets stopped and measures
0.081 gets a DUI, but someone with 0.079 just gets reckless driving. He is
interested in how much of a difference this criminal history makes when each
person searches for a job.<br />
<br /></div>
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Professor Doleac is interested in how to improve prisoner
re-entry. She is currently studying a new program that uses technology to help
inmates develop a transition plan for when they are released from jail or
prison, then provides additional information and reminders (or “nudges” in
behavioral economics lingo) to help them stay on track after they get out. The
program addresses a number of areas that can be challenging for this group –
including finding a place to live, enrolling in school, getting a job,
accessing health care and substance abuse treatment, and finding reliable child
care.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Let’s talk! I would love to know what you think about this
example of unintended consequences. Please submit comments and questions. </div>
Sharon G Harrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02041335486606441461noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5580206722939828173.post-39165673345082126372016-11-28T17:40:00.000-08:002016-11-30T17:17:52.610-08:00Randall Reback<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://barnard.edu/sites/default/files/styles/lede_image/public/users/headshot_0.jpg?itok=mf8PvN6X" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://barnard.edu/sites/default/files/styles/lede_image/public/users/headshot_0.jpg?itok=mf8PvN6X" /></a></div>
The first expert I interviewed was <a href="https://barnard.edu/profiles/randall-reback">Randall Reback</a>, Associate
Professor of Economics, and my colleague at Barnard College, Columbia
University. His specialty is the Economics of Education; and he is particularly
interested in K-12 education policy in the US, with a focus on policies that
affect teachers, and how they are evaluated. He also studies policies that
determine the types of non-academic services that students receive in schools,
like health services. He is also interested in school choice policies, and what
determines how much money schools get to spend.</div>
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I wanted to know more about Professor Reback's paper “<a href="http://www.columbia.edu/~rr2165/pdfs/mobilityhousingjpube.pdf">Mobility, Housing Markets, and Schools: Estimating the Effects of Interdistrict Choice Programs</a>.”
In this paper, Professor Reback and his co-authors, <a href="http://dpp.uconn.edu/faculty-research/faculty-staff/faculty/eric-brunner/">Eric J. Brunner</a> and <a href="http://ccrc.tc.columbia.edu/person/sung-woo-cho.html">Sung-Woo Cho</a>, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>study a policy called
“Interdistrict Choice.” These are public school choice programs, also called
open enrollment programs. These programs are in place in many US states.
Families can live in one school district and apply to send their child or
children to school in another, nearby district. Until recently, with the rise
of charter schools, this was the most heavily used form of school choice in the
US. The rules vary by state, but the idea is to give families freedom of
choice, in order to provide a better match for each child in terms of schooling
needs. In some states, the goal is also to increase diversity within a school
district, by guaranteeing a certain number of spaces for children from outside
the district.<br />
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I wondered how often families actually take advantage of
these programs. The data show that about 5% of students transfer out of
district on average, with a high of 10%, and a low of 1%. So, these policies
seem to be effective. But he argues that the districts are allowed to limit the
number of slots available for transfer students; and states could put pressure
on districts to expand the programs, and take more transfer students.<br />
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Which families take advantage of the policy? The children
who transfer, he says, have parents who are more well-off than their neighbors,
but not as well-off as the parents of the children in the district to which
they are transferring.<br />
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The <u>unintended consequences</u> of this policy are fascinating.
The researchers found them by comparing the 12 states where the districts are
required to participate in the program to other districts, often nearby, where
the transfer policies are not adopted. Professor Reback explains them from an
economist’s perspective: this policy is intended to affect the market for <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">schooling</b>, but it also turns out to
have consequences on the market for <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">housing</b>.
In particular, in districts where there are desirable nearby transfer opportunities
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">house prices rise</i>. Families are
willing to pay more for a house in a district where they have the chance to try
to transfer to a nearby school district. The data in the paper suggests that if
a state were to adopt a statewide inter-district choice program, house prices
would increase by more than 5 percent for homes in areas with the most
desirable outside transfer opportunities. Also, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">population density increases</i> in these districts. More families are
choosing to live in these communities. And, residential composition changes: <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">these districts become slightly wealthier</i>.
Again, these are all compared to districts that are similar, but happen to
be located in places that didn’t have this transfer policy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br />
<br /></div>
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So, according to Professor Reback:<br />
<br />
“even if the choice
policy leads to segregation across schools, it helps integrate across
communities. Households that might not have chosen to live in a community in
the past, because they would have chosen to live in a more affluent community, now
they can live in a community with more income diversity, and attempt to send
their kids to other public school districts. The policy has an integrating
effect in terms of residential diversity, even if it might have a segregating
effect in terms of which kids are attending school with which other children.”<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Perhaps you are not surprised that there is a link between
the market for schooling and market for housing. You probably know that,
traditionally, much of the value of a home comes from the value of the public
schooling in the district that the home is located in. Researchers have linked
voting behavior on school choice programs -- not just this one but also private
school voucher programs and charter school programs -- to the housing market.
Even if voters aren’t going to use a programs themselves, if they live in a
district where such a program is on the slate, they might not support it for
fear of losing some of the value of their homes. And the evidence is that house
prices do fall, though only slightly, in the school districts with these
policies. Houses retain most of their value, however, because the only way
students are guaranteed to attend these schools is to live in these districts;
so these houses are still the most attractive. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
One interesting thing about these unintended consequences is
the distinction between unintended consequences and <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">unanticipated</i> consequences. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In
this case, the consequences on the housing market, and on the redistribution of
the population, are not unanticipated. The policy makers, school districts, and
the homeowners all seem to understand that there will be effects on the housing
market. In fact, it’s one reason why the districts might limit the number of
slots available to students from outside the district -- <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>to limit the effect on house prices.<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So, in this case, the unintended consequences are limited,
because of the limited number of slots available in each district. This is a
good thing. But, it is my goal in this blog to learn from these experts how we
might re-design policies in the future. So, I asked Professor Reback about the potential
for policy reform. He told me that the public school district is the “provider
of last resort,” and that each year choice programs, like interdistrict public
school choice policies and charter schools, create a greater degree of
uncertainty in the number of students the public school district will have to
serve. This makes it harder for them to set their budgets. His suggestion is
that the cutoff date for participating in all choice programs be early, well
before September, and be coordinated across programs. This makes a lot of
sense.<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Finally, I asked Professor Reback about his other related
work. In <a href="http://www.columbia.edu/~rr2165/pdfs/nycharterfiscal.pdf">work</a> with <a href="https://www.maxwell.syr.edu/cpr_about.aspx?id=6442451850">Robert Bifulco</a>, he looks at how students attending charter
schools affects traditional school districts. They studied two school
districts. When a new charter school opens, the public school district needs to
decide how much to downsize, in terms of eliminating staff. The authors work
under the assumption that the school districts can easily downsize roughly 1/3
of what they need to eliminate quickly; another 1/3 will take one to three
years, like eliminating a principal; and the last 1/3 is the longer term
downsizing like eliminating a superintendent. They find that it’s the medium
term downsizing that is the hardest for the districts. And if the charter
school fails and closes, the traditional school has to absorb the students back
in. Professor Reback and his co-author have several policy recommendations to
make these sorts of transitions smoother: as mentioned before, setting a common
early deadline for choice programs will help here as well. Another is the
shared use of space. School districts now often sell their space to charter
schools. Instead, they could rent it, and so with schools sharing resources
both can be more productive. I think this is a brilliant idea.<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Let’s talk! I would love to know what
you think about this example of unintended consequences. Please submit comments
and questions. </div>
Sharon G Harrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02041335486606441461noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5580206722939828173.post-66579286625903574942016-11-28T09:35:00.002-08:002016-11-28T17:24:45.552-08:00Welcome to my blog!<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;">Welcome to my
blog! If you already know me, or you just read my profile, you know that I'm an
economist. What initially drew me to economics was the mathematical modeling: I
fell in love with economics when I discovered that I could approximate humans’ and
governments’ behavior with equations and graphs. For example, it is standard in
economics to write down a model where humans buy the products, in the amounts,
that make them the happiest. So, economists make up equations to measure
people’s happiness, based on the amount of the product that they buy. If you
took calculus in high school or college, maybe you remember how to use it (or
at least <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">that</i> you can use it) to find
where an equation is maximized. And, voila, you’re using mathematical modeling
to understand economic decision making. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;">So, math is
powerful. But, with experience, as I've matured as a social scientist, I've
come to appreciate the important roles that the other social sciences play in
our understanding of economic models. I'm not the only one. Economics as a
field has also matured in this way. In particular, the Great Recession caused
me, and many of my colleagues, to “think outside the box,” and to realize that
mathematical modeling isn’t necessarily the best way, or the only way, to analyze
every situation.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;">I am now
fascinated <span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">by </span>all the social sciences</span>. I've been studying psychology,
social psychology, and sociology and how the insights in these fields can help
me to understand the "behind the scenes" behavior in the models I
work with. For example, I model people as having self-fulfilling expectations.
If they all expect a recession, they play it safe, don’t spend as much, and
their expectation is fulfilled. Vice versa if they all expect a boom. But the
models can't explain <i>how</i> this self-fulfilling prophecy occurs. Why do
people all start to behave similarly when they are in a group situation? It's
herd behavior, group psychology. Insights from these other social sciences are
needed. My working paper, "Sunspots in Social Networks: Experimental
Evidence,” with <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/f/pba1104.html">Pietro Battiston</a>, is incorporating such insights.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><br />
The point is that my studies of these other, fascinating social sciences have
led me to my obsession with unintended consequences. Unintended consequences
are everywhere. They result because human behavior is unpredictable. When
individuals, groups, or governments take action with a goal in mind, that goal
is almost never the only result of the action. When the other, usually
unforeseen, outcomes are significant enough to be of note, they earn this
distinction. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In his seminal paper,
"<a href="http://www.romolocapuano.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/MertonUnanticipated.pdf">The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposive Social Action</a>," Robert
K. Merton wrote: </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;">"we may have sufficient knowledge of the limits of the
range of possible consequences, and even adequate knowledge for ascertaining
the statistical . . . probabilities of the various possible sets of consequences, but it is impossible to predict with certainty the results in any
particular case . . . We have here the paradox that whereas past experience is the
sole guide to our expectations on the assumption that certain past, present and
future acts are sufficiently alike . . . these experiences are in fact
different." </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;">In my search
of the literatures, both academic and popular press, I’ve found that the most prominent
examples are negative, or undesirable, unintended consequences of government
policies. But unintended consequences, both positive and negative, can result
from the actions of private individuals and groups as well. In this blog, my
goal will be to delve deeply into some of the examples I’ve found the most
compelling. I’ll interview the authors who wrote about these examples, then
summarize each interview for you, including information about other related
research that the author is working on. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;">I’m looking
forward to taking this journey with you. I expect each posting will bring us
all, as professional and amateur social scientists, closer to an understanding
of the complexities of human behavior; and to thinking about how to better
anticipate, and hence prepare for, any consequences of our future actions. I
hope that you will take the lessons you learn here and apply them in your daily
life. The consequence might be a drastic change in the way you live your life.
Maybe not, I don’t know, I can’t predict. Let’s see what happens. . .</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;">Thanks for
reading!</span><br />
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</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
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mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
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<![endif]-->Sharon G Harrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02041335486606441461noreply@blogger.com0